SOLUTION FOR TASK MINIMIZATION RISKS OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN THE PROCESS OF MILITARY AEROTECHICS FACTORY REPAIR IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE SPECIAL PERIOD

Abstract

The article presents the analysis results of the question of ensuring the post-repair reliability of military aviation equipment, while adjusting the production of component parts (spare parts, units) by domestic enterprises in the process of import substitution. System of aviation equipment maintenance of state aviation is a complex multifactorial, essentially nonlinear and non-stationary system, so one of the expedient approaches to assessing the influence of risk-forming factors on ensuring a given level of serviceability of a fleet of aviation equipment is to consider analogies for a system of adequate complexity. Such system is considered  the  system  of  aircraft  repair  company  when  performing  import  substitution  measures  with  appropriate  risks.  The most significant risks of the implementation of measures of import substitution in the process of factory repair of aviation equipment of state aviation, which are not subject to copyright supervision, are listed. Each risk is characterized. The algorithm of formation of the plan of repair of aviation equipment, at which the minimal risk of providing the set level of serviceability of thestate aviation park for each of the possible scenarios of a special period is presented. Quantitative evaluation of the measure of the feasibility of a program measure is carried out by calculating the probability of occurrence of determining risks on the basis of the synthesis of scientific and methodological apparatus of risk theory and fuzzy sets theory. The authors propose to improve the existing methodological approach to assessing the expectation of the occurrence of a specific risk of a program measure in terms of its adaptation to the features of a program measure such as the procurement project, clarification and extension of the list of major risk-forming factors affecting the success of the procurement and implementation project Sugeno. Recommendations are given to minimize the risks of import substitution of factory repair processes in the special period. The recommendations relate to the state defense policy, the legal basis for the technical documentation of enterprises, measures on materials science and production technology, taking into account the dependence of the level of reliability on the design and schematic solutions.