Application of the method of group accounting of arguments for determining the maintenance periods of aircraft airframes
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54858/dndia.2025-21-21Keywords:
flight safety, failure probability, engineering and aviation supportAbstract
The study was conducted using a target function, which was chosen as one of the partial flight safety criteria: the overall probability of no failure occurring in the structural elements of the airframe and its systems. The overall probability consists of three separate factors: the probability of unexpected failures, the probability of physical wear, and the probability of natural aging.
The calculation of the probabilities of the individual factors is performed according to the following laws: the exponential law for unexpected failures, and the normal law for physical wear and natural aging.
An indicator characterizing the operational intensity of aircraft was introduced, which is calculated as the ratio of flight hours to the total operating time during which flights are performed. Based on the analysis of the influence of intensity on flight safety, it was assumed that, given a specified probability of flight safety and in the case of high intensity, it is possible to allow a positive tolerance regarding the timing of preventive maintenance. Conversely, when the intensity, according to expert evaluation, is low, a negative tolerance should be applied.
The mathematical model for determining the minimum duration of preventive maintenance and the number of specialist groups in the engineering and aviation service involves the use of simulation modeling methods combined with action scheduling theory and the Method of Group Accounting of Arguments (MGUA).
The Method of Group Accounting of Arguments implements a series of algorithms for gradually complicating the model through multilevel selection.
Determining the rational maintenance of the aircraft airframe fleet and its systems based on the Method of Group Accounting of Arguments involves the consistent implementation of the following provisions:
first - justification of the probability distribution laws for failure occurrence based on statistical processing of operational data; second - clustering of the list of tasks for restoring the serviceability of aviation equipment;
third - expert evaluation of the time required for repair work; fourth - application of simulation modeling methods and the Method of Group Accounting of Arguments
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