Applied markov model for assessing the impact of adverse factors on the operational process of aircraft

Abstract

A mathematical model has been developed based on the methods of Markov process theory for the complex ergatic system “crew–aircraft,” which is used to assess flight safety conditions. Methodological approaches are considered for analyzing the effects of adverse factors on the technical condition of the airframe and its systems. Analytical dependencies have been obtained describing the transition processes of the “crew–aircraft” system between various random states. The set of random states is determined through logical analysis of possible special flight situations and represented as a tree graph with probabilistic branches.

The application of Markov models with both continuous and discrete parameters has been studied in cases involving multiple adverse factors. For models with a continuous parameter, a system of Kolmogorov differential equations is used to determine the probabilities of the “crew–aircraft” system being in different random states. For models with a discrete parameter, a matrix form of the function with an integer-valued argument representing the number of transition steps between states is applied.

The feasibility of using Markov models is analyzed using the example of a hydraulic system consisting of a main and an emergency backup system, as well as an automatic switch in case of main system failure.

The potential of Markov models is analyzed using the example of a hydraulic system consisting of a main and an emergency backup subsystem, as well as an automatic switching mechanism in the event of main system failure.

It is proposed to use the Markov model for processing aircraft operational data when preparing decision options for forecasting changes in the technical condition of the airframe and its systems