METHODICAL APPROACH TO CONSTRUCTION A SYSTEM FOR SUPPORTING SOLUTIONS FOR FORECASTING THE TECHNICAL CONDITION OF THE AGING PARK OF AIRCRAFT PLANNERS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54858/dndia.2021-17-10Keywords:
glider of aircraft, number of fleet of serviceable (faulty) aircraft, forecastAbstract
The subject of research is to develop models for forecasting changes in the quantitative composition of the aging fleet of aircraft gliders. A methodical approach to building a decision support system during forecasting is proposed on the basis of models. The purpose of the research is to determine the functional dependences in the expert-analytical methods of assessing the technical condition of the design of aircraft gliders and forecast assessments of the impact of operational factors. As a result of researches functional dependences which it is expedient to realize in system of support of decisions of the forecast are proved.
Peculiarities of obtaining forecast estimates of durability and reliability of aircraft design are their probabilistic manifestation, which is due to the content of flight training programs, its qualification level, properties of SE materials, meteorological and climatic conditions of aircraft operation, aerodrome coverage and more.
The mathematical model of the forecast is based on the expert-analytical approach, which provides for the joint use of experience and knowledge of experts on the operation of aircraft and the results of calculations based on known analytical dependences when calculating the operational strength of the SE. One of these dependences is the function of the logarithmically normal distribution of the probability of fatigue failure of the power elements of the structure.
Changes in the number of aircraft fleet are determined by four discrete random variables, which characterize the number of aircraft that require work to eliminate damage to the CE of the aircraft glider due to the values of failure probability, as well as the number of aircraft that depend on service life and have gamma resource reliability is less than 70 percent and recovery, the serviceability of which is impractical. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the number of aircraft, the technical condition of which can be restored in the conditions of aircraft repair companies; as well as by replacing faulty units with appropriate products that are part of the backup aircraft.
Simulation modeling of expert-analytical methods for forecasting changes in the quantitative composition of the aging fleet of aircraft gliders has been carried out. The simulation results indicate the possibility of their application in the decision support system of forecasting.
References
Филиппов В.В. Надежность и техническая експлуатация авиационной техники. В кн.: Проблемы надежности летательных аппаратов. – М.: Машиностроение, 1985. – С. 48–62.
Агамиров Л.И., Райхер И.Л. Вероятностные методы расчета показателей надежности авиационных конструкций при переменных нагрузках – М.: Научн. исслед. ун-т МЭИ, 2018. – 186 с.
Мушик Э., Мюллер П. Методы принятия технических решений: Пер. с нем. – М.: Мир, 1990. – 208 с.
Демидова Л.А., Кираковский В.В., Пылькин А.Н. Принятие решений в условиях неопределенности. – М.: Горячая линия – Телеком, 2013. – 289 с.
Нормы летной годности самолетов транспортной категории (Авиационные правила, часть 25), 2009. – 270 с.
Селихов А.Ф., Чижов В.М. Вероятностные методы в расчетах прочности самолета. – М.: Машиностроение, 1987. – 236 с.
Райхер В.Л., Селихов А.Ф., Хлебникова И.Г. Учет множественности критических мест конструкции при оценке долговечности и ресурса. / Ученые записки ЦАГИ том ХV №2 1984. – С. 72– 81.
Биргер И.А. Детерминированные и статистические модели долговечности. – В кн.: Проблемы надежности летательных аппаратов. – М.: Машиностроение, 1985. – С. 105–150.
Стрижиус В.С. Методы расчета усталостной долговечности элементов авиаконструкций. – М.: Машиностроение, 2012. – 272 с.
Барзилович Е.Ю., Савенков М.В. Статистические методы оценки состояния авиационной техники –М.: Транспорт, 1987. – 240 с.
Радченко С.Г. Методология регрессионного анализа. Монография. – К.: Корнійчук, 2011. – 376 с.
Снитюк В.Е. Эволюционные технологии принятия решений в условиях неопределенности. – К.: МП Леся, 2015. – 347 с.
